Perspective Advisory - All Things Considered

My point here is that tensions between parties and factions will always be there. It is time for the moderate majority to make their voices heard. To many of us do not get involved. This creates the space for those that shout loudest to be heard. This is amplified by Social media platforms that feed us content confirming outlying viewpoints as fact (even false facts). This encourages these far our constituencies to believe their own hype and come out in support thereof. This is a global phenomenon playing out currently – reference US politics and UK riots. This can also be ‘positive’ if you see what happened in Bangladesh and Kenya recently. Although I say positive as your viewpoint depends on how you see your world and these changes as that or negative and what the algorithm feeds you.

If that middle, moderate viewpoint was provided more weight than these polarising individuals, we would all quickly realise that we all want what is best for all of us. That these views take up space and weaponise our media is frustrating. It increases the noise around these narrow aims and directs energy encouraging involvement from those that are sitting on the fence. A self-fulfilling prophecy in some ways.

To end this point what I would like to encourage all of us to do is ‘Get Involved’. Be it in your neighbourhood, your community or just in your road. As a citizen on our countries we can make a difference. By staying out of it and being quiet, we allow these ‘people’ to take our voices away. Noting that a comment on WhatsApp or X doesn’t count as civil activism. No one would allow that to happen to them so why do we allow it to happen in our communities, our politics and in our media?

Let’s keep this short, there is tons of information out there, including from our weekly report that you should all be getting. Let’s highlight some points and facts picked up in engaging with wealth managers, investment specialists and other people with their ears to the ground.

• South Africa should be proud of our people in what they have done with our Government of National Unity (GNU). You have seen around the world how political changes have wrought upheaval and chaos (USA a case in point) when an incumbent loses power.
• If our leaders can put us first and keep this energy focused on our challenges, add 2 Pot to this mix and a decreasing interest rate environment into account, our GDP growth could well get to the 2,5 % expected and even surpass this in years to come.
• I am quietly positive in that should we get things right in SA our markets and country could rise to be an investment hotspot once again. Boding well for all of us who have remained loyal to our home and ZAR investment strategies. We do need GDP growth above 5 % to really dent our unemployment, however, let’s get growth trending upwards first and take it from there!
• Some fascinating stats on South African consumers:
  • 90 % of working persons earn less then R 10k per month; &
  • 75 % of people holding a credit card earn between R 5,000 & 7,500 per month.
• The pending 2 Pot changes could be a boon, see more lower down, with Billions of ZAR coming into our consumer for spending. It would be great if some debt was paid off, but we all know this is going to be spent as most individuals do when they cash out their retirement funds. Which is why our government has made these changes.
• Interest rate cycle will start to ease soon – September cuts likely by the US Fed and that usually signals the rest of the world to follow suit.
  • JP Morgan was calling a 0,75 % drop by mid-2025.
  • Have also heard that this could be a lower for longer period again (but not as low as before) as Reserve Banks, globally, try to get growth going on actual growth not just cheap money.
• Globally things look really unsteady, if you are reading commentaries and listening to those that talk, there are fears, including the reality of a US and Chinese recession. Taking this into account, our own good fortunes could be scuppered by a global slowdown. Things to consider in investment returns moving forward.
• One fear I have is a global conflict expansion and one to watch is the tinder box that is the South China Sea. China rattling its sabre over this area and include in that its moves towards Taiwan. Add in the Middle East and one can see how my comments on these global interests pushing against a stable world for their own agendas.